Strategies for Winning the MegaSales, with Sunava Dutta, Chief Product Officer at Pacvue

Transcript

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Peter Crosby (00:00):

Welcome to unpacking the Digital Shelf where we explore brand manufacturing in the digital age. Hey everyone. Peter Crosby here from the Digital Shelf Institute. The mega sales of the big retailers represent both risk and opportunity and the size of both are constantly changing. Today's guest, Sunava, chief product officer at Pacvue, brings a ton of insights around overall strategic, organizational and process best practices, and a dive into the data and what it pretends for this season of the prime days and the Walmart deals. It involves all of the rooms of your house and a lot of math. Welcome to the podcast, Sunava. We are so excited to have you on. Thank you so much for coming.

Sunava Dutta (00:53):

You're welcome, Peter. Appreciate it. Lauren, nice to meet you as well. Again,

Peter Crosby (00:58):

Just to give our audience a special one of those clutch feelings in the chest. We're only a few months out until Prime Day, 113 days to be exact, and brands really need to start thinking about how their content and retail media campaigns are going to work to together. Hopefully it's part of what we need to talk about to tell a compelling story to their customer. There's so much in flux right now in the world and with retail media. So I wanted to see Ava and sort of in this context how you've seen the industry shift around these sort of tentpole events.

Sunava Dutta (01:31):

Yeah, that's a really good question. I feel like it's become a very dynamic marketplace and if you step back, there are three broad teams that I want to talk about quickly from a market and industry perspective. The first one is increased retailer competition. This is the where it's really becoming easier, and I'm not using the word easy, but easier for retailers to develop. Arm ends, more companies investing in this space and AI is accelerating the trend. It's becoming much, much faster to write code. What used to take weeks can now take hours. And then if you don't want to go in-house, you can also partners with others like promote IQ for example, that's helping Home Depot, et cetera. Cable, we're partnered with them. So what does this mean, right? It means for the more surface area, there's more surface area for brands to play in within the retailers like Amazon, target, Kroger in the us, and a choice they have to face on what is the best dollar allocation.

(02:38):

So these events are pretty close to each other, right? Prime day target, Walmart deals, and with mega sales, you have to think about what is the best way to rebalance your strategy and how do you set the objective? What is the best ways to rebalance the strategy, whether you want to drive CPC, whether you want to drive roas. So again, good example of this whole retailer, RMN saturation is prime day. You could be like, look, we're going to focus on driving prime day sales. That's a key focus as a brand. And then if you want to do a lower CPC, but a higher ROS blade, let's do Walmart deals day, right? So you might have a strategy that kind of spans multi retail. That's trend number one. Mostly a function of increased ment access and development. The second one is the what? Being able to rapidly execute flywheel on the demand side.

(03:33):

So think about planning, activation, measurement, that's the ads world and then connect it to the supply side. Sell in, sell through inventory levels, right? A lot of your podcasters probably live in that world as manufacturers, supply chain, et cetera. I think the days of marketing dollars and trade dollars being almost in parallel, universes are coming to an end with omnichannel retail landscape. And as you can see, RMN sit in the intersection of trade and marketing requiring both budgets to align if you want to maximize your efficiency and spend. The third one is ai. I think we've got, let's come back to that at the end. That's a pretty big BSP by itself, but I think those are the three main trends that are really demonstrating we're moving into a very dynamic marketplace right now.

Lauren Livak Gilbert (04:21):

And when you think about the brands getting ready for those changes and those dynamics, how do you suggest that they figure out what that strategy looks like, right? Do I focus more on prime day? Do I focus on deal day? Do I focus on just sales for this specific brand or product? What is your suggestion as they think about this overall strategy knowing those dynamics are changing?

Sunava Dutta (04:47):

Yeah, I think to understand that, I'd almost take a step back and look at the macroeconomic situation from 2021. We've seen a pretty interesting trend that's just been continuing. If you consider 2021 to be a speculation peak in the industry, I think value consciousness is going to be a key theme and higher intent shoppers will hold out for the mega sales events keeping CP C levels high and conversion rates and row as high. So average auto value shrinking, but people holding back on things that they know they want to buy for these big sale events. So what does that really mean from a technical marketer, performance marketer perspective?

(05:41):

If you have a high intent shopper, do you really measure ROAS or do you measure I oas, right? Why are you going to attribute or what would normally have been an organic sale to your ad dollar? I think one of the ways for brands to navigate this scenario of high intent shopper increased focused on value is by using IROAS in their kind of planning execution and starting honestly with single retailer, just use I oas within the Amazon ecosystem or the Walmart ecosystem, the target, whichever one retailers you're playing with, start with the ones where you have the data sets, you build some confidence. So there around the numbers. And then from there there's a lot of ways to explore. We can talk about that more

Lauren Livak Gilbert (06:36):

While we're on Iroas. Let's talk about it. How would you define iroas? And I completely agree with you by the way. It is a better incremental ROAS is way better than regular roas. But explain why you're looking at that and why you think that is the best approach for brands. Because I think there's some confusion around what IO as actually means in the

Sunava Dutta (06:58):

Industry. Yeah, so I think the challenge is while we look at the average order values and the economic uncertainty right now, we tend to focus a lot on the end consumer, which is the right place to start. But we often forget the brands. The brands are somewhere in the middle, there's the end consumer, there's the retailer, the brands in the middle advertisers. If you are a brand, you're also feeling the pinch and you are trying to optimize your return on marketing investment. And if you're going to do that, ROAS is kind of a little bit of a legacy metric. Is there a place for roas? Absolutely. But the problem is ROAS looks at your total output organic and marketing activity and divides it by the number of marketing dollars you put in. Now that one obviously suffers from the big problem of organic spend being attributed to your marketing dollars and in some cases I think it makes sense.

(08:03):

You may say, look, did they really not see my upper funnel ad? I think I should get some credit for that, but I don't think that that metric in isolation is sufficient. I think you also have to start teasing down, removing the organic component from it and just looking at the incremental marketing spend. And there's a lot of ways to do that. That's getting a little technical. You can use holdback or control groups to do it. You can use multitouch attribution. We have different mechanisms to do that. But I think the general gist is that I os is becoming more and more important and it helps you remove the organic component out. Now here is where I think the future is going and this is where we are. I'm championing that from a product perspective at PAC View, which is IROs. If you're a brand, start using IROs within Amazon, Walmart where you're comfortable, but the real power is cross channel, cross retail IROs and being able to sit back, plug the output of the IROs into your future budget planning tools. So now you are optimizing future planning around cross retailer, not even multi retailer, cross retailer strategy and then optimizing how you want to allocate your spend based on different metrics, right? CPC, click-through rate, et cetera, conversion rates, et cetera.

Lauren Livak Gilbert (09:29):

I absolutely love that. And I think to sum up the just plain ROAS conversation, I always like to say if you want me to make ROAS look good, I can. If you want to be able to make that metric, tell the story you want it to tell, you can. But if you're looking at Iroas, it's actually a driver for the business if you're calculating it correctly. And I love your point about connecting it to budget planning and that's where your finance team really needs to come into play for any brand that's listening here, if you're not including finance in this conversation, for them to understand what IRO as means and how you can plan that out more holistically with the business, that is a missing key here. And I don't know Sunava if you've been in any conversations with finance and you have any anecdotes, but that is a critical piece.

Sunava Dutta (10:22):

And actually it's kind of funny. I came from Microsoft, spent 18 years there and one of the things that Microsoft in advertising is we have this concept of the different rooms in the house within a brand. You've got supply chain category managers more on the supply side, and then you've got obviously marketing. We talked about those things converging as you build this cross channel IOS strategy, you have to work whether you are especially on the demand side, very closely with your manufacturer or at least with the supply and sales side and the finance side. If you don't do that, you are going to run into spend issues. You're going to run into poor allocation of budget inventory, stockouts, right? You need to make sure you have sufficient weeks on cover. So being able to bring it all together is very critical. And that's again where software SaaS providers can play a role because within a brand they may not have, I mean they have Slack I'm sure, or teams or whatever collaboration tool of choice they have, but that is not a technical tool to look at a dashboard and numbers across the board, how the goods flow, how the customers flow, where do they intersect, what does that digital shelf look like?

(11:35):

And I think bringing that all together is a critical role for SaaS providers so that you can make good decisions, especially when you throw fuel, fuel in the fire and you go IRO as cross channel.

Peter Crosby (11:47):

So Sun, I want to zoom in on Amazon and draw on your educated crystal baldness to tell us what are your predictions for Prime Day this year and what are some of the things that you suggest brands focus on as they're preparing?

Sunava Dutta (12:04):

Yeah, I'll start by this. Why don't we just do a quick retrospective by 2024

(12:10):

And then we will play the trend. I think the trend is our friend as they say in investing. So let's stop there. So last prime day, I think it was new records, 14 billion in spend. I think around roughly a 10% increase and CPCs were very high, very high. I think it was a 2.5% second day peak, which is about 70, 70% more than average. And then as I mentioned earlier, average order volumes are falling a little bit. I expect the average order volume to continue to decline, but maybe at a less steep rate as more and more price conscious and value oriented shoppers look for deals, I think CPCs are going to be competitive. There's no way around that and I think high intent shoppers are going to continue to flock to these events. So I think generally I'm pretty positive about that impact of tariffs and all unknown.

(13:11):

I think it's going to require several very high functioning crystal balls to be able to predict the output of that. Now let's talk about categories. I think on prime day you can't have a conversation on prime day without necessarily talking about what categories do well. So let's again build on the themes that we're talking about. High intent shoppers. If you do that, there are certain categories that we know thrive, let's talk about it. Baby products, pretty high intent, right? Baby products, pretty expensive. Pet supplies, you generally know what you want for your pet once you've established it, if you want to explore show, there are lots of ways to explore, but I mean that's another category that's super important. Personal care, health and household. I think those categories are going to continue to do really well in prime day this year. The one that I don't have my crystal balls a little blurry on is electronics. I think that one has also been a big driver and has done really well from a ROAS perspective on Prime Day historically. I think Prime Day will bring about some really good deals there. On the other hand, it is a discretionary purchase for most people. So I am not sure how we do in that category this year versus historical where we've done very well. But overall, I think the other categories will continue to do well, and this one let's keep an eye and watch a watch and see again, that keeps things exciting. It

Lauren Livak Gilbert (14:42):

Definitely does. And one of the things about Prime Day that I'm hoping brands are already working on is to Peter's opening their content to their ads that they're driving and trying to figure out what the right mix is and how to think through where they should place their ads and how they should be thinking about that. If you are talking to, let's say a grocery brand and they're trying to figure out how should I be setting up my ad strategy and how am I combining that with my organic reach and market share that I already have, what were two tips that you would say or you would think through and you would say to that brand as there are 113 days out to start thinking about from an ad perspective?

Sunava Dutta (15:29):

Yeah, yeah, I love that question. I actually, you know what, I would almost combine this with AI because I think that you really can't answer that question without bringing in AI here. But let's start with the non-AI components first, at least more traditional components, then layer in ai. Let's do it in two phases. So one is I think it's important to start planning ahead. I think this one's obvious, but you'd be surprised. A lot of brands, they've had a reorg. This means some changes. They don't necessarily have the leeway, the runway that we think that they do. So invest in preen pole brand awareness is absolutely key. So one of the things that we encourage our brands is ramp up, spend two to three weeks before prime day and you'll see stronger organic rankings. And we've seen that lower CPCs on the actual day. So your total spend might be pretty high just because you're ramping it up, but on prime day you'll be more predictable.

(16:35):

You're going to maximize efficiency. So stepping back again, leading up to prime day or 10 pole events, right? Circles, deals day, et cetera, ramp up your spend and start going upper funnel. I know upper funnel sometimes is not as satisfying just because it feels a little more wishy-washy, but I think it's important to go early there and also consider influencer in your strategy. That's another area where our company is making a book big push as the product leader, I'm going to be driving a lot around there, TikTok, et cetera. I think going influencer is very important nowadays. So that's my number one tip.

(17:14):

The other one I would say is time to think about rapidly testing creative. All of this is not a surprise to anyone right now. That's a well-trodden area. I think AI can make the process much faster. So again, doubling down on that. The third one we talked about, which is focusing on incremental spend, it's not easy to just shift to Iris, it's just not. You need to work with your teams, the hands-on keyboard people, the brands, the finance team, supply chain team, and you really need to bring sometimes brands, they often will have a bunch of people focusing on Google, a bunch of focusing on Amazon, and those people don't necessarily share tips. If you're going to do cross channel, you've got to start building that muscle. Those are some of the tips. And then there's a ton of stuff around AI that we can talk about as well, but this is the almost like basics. If you get the basics, the rest of stuff like AI and all can help you get there faster. If you don't get the basics and throw AI on it, you're going to get garbage and garbage out.

Peter Crosby (18:14):

So before we head to ai, because of course we have to, I'd love just to get your insights on, because we've been talking about this well forever on the pod, but even more recently about the org changes that are required to play in this environment. You just rattled off a list of three or four teams that need to all be in on this strategy, and I'm wondering what you're seeing in your clients from sort of best in class that are starting to figure out how to do that cross team coordination in an environment like yours. That's so rapid. I'm just wondering if you have some thoughts about that.

Sunava Dutta (18:56):

Oh, absolutely do. So one of the things that we have seen we can help with, look, when we're dealing with our big brands, that view's goal is not to necessarily tell them how to run their org. That's not our goal. But we do work with them and we do work across the different orgs, like when we work in commerce ads, bring it all together to digital shelf. And what we have seen is almost this two kind of elements to success within the brands for moving to this new world that we've been talking about today. One is you may be structurally organized in a matrixed way within the organization, and that's okay if you are a matrix, target a big brand with marketing supply chain sitting in different divisions, which is normal. I expect that to continue. And then even within your marketing team, having DSP upper funnel folks sitting in a different group, retail media and a different group.

(19:53):

And then within retail media you have your Amazon team and all. That's all fine, but you have to, when it comes to things like cross channel, et cetera, you have to create the incentive structure for them to work together. And that includes joint accountability, joint definitions of success. So example, a category manager looking at the electronics category, they have to set their goals in partnership with the manufacturers and all, which they often do, but also with the demand side partners. So we use the concept of pods. You can use virtual teams if you want to use a more MBA term, right? V teams. You've got to set those teams up and early and you've got to invest in those teams spending time together regardless of whether the organization is matrixed or not. So that includes them meeting at an offsite, working together, discussing strategies, discussing prime day, getting ready for that, going through a joint checklist, not a separate checklist, a joint checklist.

(20:54):

Those are things that we have seen work really well. Now on our side as a SaaS provider and a technology platform, we bring them also together using our platform. I think I mentioned Slack and Zoom only can go so far, right? Those are great collaboration tools, but they're not optimized for our space. For our space. What we do is we are building an executive hub, for example, and we put that out in our product right now we call it a god's view on your sales, sales numbers, manufacturing numbers, inventory numbers, and your demand side numbers in one place. You use things like that. You use our budget planner and our budget manager. Now you're suddenly starting to see different personas from the different rooms in the house in a brand accessing that same tool to look at the same numbers, work off the same source of truth and the same set of facts. So now that's how we facilitate that process, but it comes from the org and then technology that we provide provides an accelerant to that journey.

Peter Crosby (21:55):

That makes a ton of sense. Lauren, were you going to say something?

Lauren Livak Gilbert (21:58):

I was just going to say I a hundred percent agree, Peter knows this. I'm working on some org structure research with the DSI and your pod concept. I've also heard people call it like teams of teams, correct? You need to be able to activate in small teams who has visibility across the entire commercial process versus just your silo of a sales or a marketing or a supply chain. You just can't be successful because that is no longer how the consumer shops, and that is no longer the consumer journey. So you're operating in an old construct. So I completely agree with you, but I also know that it is challenging to change those types of behaviors. So the pod or the matrix structure is a great way to begin, have those cross-functional meetings, meet biweekly, have agile standups, have the cross-functional global meetings, and then roll that out to the broader organization. It's something that everybody needs to start thinking about because the shopper does not go, Hey, I'm going to buy on this channel today and then on this channel tomorrow. They just go on their shopping journey.

Sunava Dutta (23:05):

Exactly. And this inspiration for me, it actually came from Microsoft at Bill Gates time when he was a CEO. One of his missions back in the day was saying, look, Microsoft is growing into a giant company, but it's extremely matrixed and a lot of the roles are redundant and people are not talking. How do we bring it all together? And Microsoft went down a shift and then the rest is history. Now it's I think the second or third most valuable company in the world. I think that kind of unlock mirroring that kind of a pod based unlock can allow you to again, keep, keep your org structure without breaking it apart, but have people collaborating a lot more. And now with all the tools that we have, I think that it's much easier than it was 20 years ago.

Peter Crosby (23:45):

Well, that's a nice thing. I mean, what Lauren is talking about, this shift in organizational work and in process, what's wonderful is when technology can then come along

(23:57):

And adapt itself to be able to support that structure and those cross-functional conversations, that's the right order really, because in order for the organization to put use of the things that you are describing, they need to be set up and incentivized to want to do that conversation, which I think is really cool. So you may not tell organizations how to put themselves together, but the DSI will apparently. So we're going to work on that part and then we'll meet in the middle. So I wanted to dig in on AI for a second before we close out. And one important question is, do you both agree with me that Rufuss is a dog?

Lauren Livak Gilbert (24:40):

Great question. I feel like I have just thought of him as a dog. Yeah,

Peter Crosby (24:45):

That's fair. I don't think Amazon's using that enough. Everyone loves a dog.

Lauren Livak Gilbert (24:49):

Well, sparky's a smiley face on Walmart, their new AI assistant roll

Peter Crosby (24:52):

That of course, because course didn't. They used to have the, yeah, that's back to the rollback thing. Anyway, sorry. Sorry, suns. I didn't mean to

Sunava Dutta (24:58):

No, no, no. To me, it's a disembodied spirit.

Peter Crosby (25:03):

Very eerie. I love it. And more importantly, when you think about our listeners and your customers preparing for a, what do you think in this season, how much of a role will the Rufus of the world play? How much do people need to be thinking about right now? And what is your advice in that case or in, Hey, we should, here's how to prepare for that future, which is fast approaching.

Sunava Dutta (25:35):

Yeah, no, this is probably the most exciting question out there right now because everyone, AI is hard. Everyone's trying to make sense of it. Before we even jump into rufus, I want to kind of again do my thing. I just take a step back, kind frame the area and then we'll fit Rufus in here. I think the general trend is from at least within a specific niche, search-based advertising. I think that search-based advertising is now going to be complimented a lot more with intent and context-based advertising. And if we understand that, and I'm not going to use an aggressive word like keywords out and intent marker in, that's too aggressive. I don't think that the world is ever, ever that simple. I think everything makes sense now. So a good example is my wife and I, we care about eco-friendly products, health products, et cetera, healthy products.

(26:37):

And when we go search, we almost want this universal filter on top of everything. No microplastics or plastics. If there's lots of spray chemical coatings and all, we'd rather avoid that. We don't like preservatives and additives in our foods. Not everyone's like that. But think about the old world in keyword based searches. I have to search for the product. I want like a kid's jacket for skiing, and then I have to do multiple steps to get rid of Teflon from it. Now you think about an LLM, whether it's Rufus's power, et cetera, if they have enough context about you or they can gain the context about you by asking you some prompts and having a multi-term conversation, they can then filter out all these negative keywords almost in a bunch of products as you browse the web, using them as a shopping agent. And I'm not talking about roofers in particular. I'm just talking about AI powered shopping agents. That is transformative in how you can shop. So now what you're seeing is keyword search based ads important, but again, intent markers more and more important. So what does that mean? I think AI search and discovery is the next generation of retail readiness that brands really have to invest in. And companies like us, we are doubling down on that. That journey is still in the early stages just because there's so much movement there. But I think that's where we're heading. I

Peter Crosby (28:16):

Think it's super exciting. And the fascinating thing will be how long is the path to get there? Because AI as a concept, as a function, as a capability is developing very quickly. But what will it take and where will the leaps be made? Some people talk about the AI search engines or search engines, becoming the sort of leader in that and giving retailers the capability to do this, and that might make it leapfrog more than one might usually express. I don't know whether this is fair to say or not, but at least the wider swath of retailers technologically can sometimes be laggards, not leaders. I dunno. I'm just wondering if you have thoughts

Sunava Dutta (29:09):

About that. It's a good question. I'm going to date myself a little bit, but being one of the people who started my career before the iPhone was created, which nowadays is ancient history,

Peter Crosby (29:20):

Yes,

Sunava Dutta (29:21):

It's, I think the answer to that is sooner than most people think, and also at the same time, longer than most people can imagine. Do you remember the days of the.com, the fiber optics and the investment in data, not data centers, fiber optic cables and all right?

Peter Crosby (29:38):

Oh, sure. Yeah.

Sunava Dutta (29:39):

I think that there was a lot of push, and it happened in many ways. The output was sooner. You had a lot of websites come on in.com, pets.com, et cetera, before people even thought it was possible. But then the real rail revolution wave came much later on. So I think what we're seeing is the first wave of ai, and it's coming very fast. I mean, we're making investments. AI agents is going to be a big, big focus for our company at Back View. I know platform companies, it's all over the place. People are creating their own agents in five minutes. Nowadays. You can go and open AI and do that. I think that's going to be the first wave. Then I think what's likely to happen, again, it's crystal ball here a little bit, is that we're going to run into some platform and some performance trade-offs.

(30:24):

So a good example of that is AI is notoriously unpredictable, and that's just the nature of ai. The output, if you think of X as an input, the output is fx and the variability of the LMS output is quite broad, rod. They're prone to hallucination, but it's also the nature, the way transformers work. So I expect, I'll give you an example. DCO, dynamic creative optimization using ai, stable diffusion models, you can use AI to create all sorts of images, great for brands. If you want, let's say you're a brand and you want to create Christmas creative, right? 800 by 800 or whatever for A DSP. The problem though is that now what if you do that and you find there are some weird artifacts in the images. They're not that easy to remove and at scale at the way these brands operate and the kind of level of perfection they require. These things might pose a problem that we're not fully aware of yet, but we will learn down the line. So again, I think that we're well into the first wave. It's super exciting. We're going to run into some issues as an industry. It's going to create a pause, a setback, and then we're going to again plow through in another wave. So that's just how technology works.

Peter Crosby (31:30):

You are a wondrous combination of sort of spectacular thought leader and total nerd, and I love it. Thank you for bringing us both. This moment needs that. It needs somebody who's able to think about these things in both ways, way down in

Sunava Dutta (31:47):

Detail. I appreciate it. I used to run robotics before this jump, so it's kind of exciting.

Peter Crosby (31:51):

In 18 years at Microsoft, that must have been a ride.

Sunava Dutta (31:55):

It was amazing.

Peter Crosby (31:56):

Yeah,

Sunava Dutta (31:57):

A whole another podcast

Peter Crosby (31:59):

And a whole nother beverage. I can imagine. Sunava, before I let you go, I wanted to thank Pacvue because, well, first of all, you folks are awesome, but secondly, we saw on social media, and Lauren will kill me for bringing this up, but as they closed out Women's History Month, your company put out a list of women that they recognize, trailblazing women who are redefining what's possible in retail media and commerce, and they named Lauren Livak Gilbert to that list. And I just want you to pass along to your company, my thanks and for doing that, and also for their wisdom and noticing just how awesome Lauren is. So we appreciate it.

Sunava Dutta (32:45):

You are welcome. And Lauren well deserved. I think we opened the podcast just before we started recording, just talking about the digital shelf, the work you guys are doing in this space. It's a really, really interesting space. I call you guys trailblazers. I think it's well deserved. I think this space is only going to pick up.

Peter Crosby (33:06):

Yeah, agreed. It ain't done, that's for

Lauren Livak Gilbert (33:09):

Sure. Agreed. And it's so incredible to see the community that we've been able to build because of that, right? We're all in this together. We're all figuring it out. So it's really been incredible to watch, and

Sunava Dutta (33:22):

I see that in your podcast, right? Because you're talking digital shelf and you have manufacturers and all listening in, but a lot of the podcasts focused on the supply side, a lot of them on the demand side, on the ad side, and it's really brings together the fact that we were talking about bringing all the rooms in the house together, and you guys are pioneers there, so well deserved again.

Peter Crosby (33:40):

Wow. Thank you so much. And you are one really, really strong example of that, of being able to reach out to people like you and give us some view to what we ought to be thinking about and how we ought to be organizing is super important. Sunava, thank you so much. Thank you for coming on the podcast. It's been great to talk to you.

Sunava Dutta (34:00):

Yes, thank you so much for having me.

Lauren Livak Gilbert (34:02):

Thank you.

Peter Crosby (34:04):

Thanks again to Sunava for joining us. You should take his advice and be part of the Digital Shelf Institute. Go to digitalshelfinstitute.org to become a member. Thanks for being part of our community.